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Source post
SpaceX IPO: Why the $2 Trillion Valuation Doesn't Add Up
substack.com
Stat drop + cold read
SpaceX is targeting a valuation higher than Meta, Broadcom, and Berkshire Hathaway. While posting lower revenues than Macy's. The bankers are justifying this by claiming SpaceX's total addressable market is the entire U.S. economy. All $28 trillion of it. Including an assumption that every household on earth switches to Starlink for WiFi. Starlink is a great business. The rest of this filing reads like an ayahuasca trip. New post breaks down what the numbers actually say.
Thesis with conviction
SpaceX does not price at $2 trillion. Starlink? Genuinely one of the great businesses of our era. $3.3 billion in revenue in a single quarter. 36% margins. No real competitor. But stapled onto that is xAI, which burned through $12.7 billion in capex last year. More than they spent building rockets or satellites. Musk knows the only way this gets to $2 trillion is if it becomes a meme stock. He's making 30% of shares available to retail for a reason. The number that actually holds up: $600 billion.
Scene snap + pivot
The SpaceX S-1 opens with 14 pages of rocket photos. A direct quote from the filing: "We do not want humans to have the same fate as dinosaurs." That is the document you are being asked to value at $1.75 trillion. For context, when Google went public it was growing 240% and traded at 10x trailing revenue. SpaceX wants 94x while growing at 33%. The bond market just hit yields not seen since 2007. The escape hatch that stopped Trump's tariffs is gone. And retail investors are being handed 30% of the SpaceX float. All of this is connected. Full breakdown in this week's post.